The obvious take on the first day of vote counting is that of shock and disbelief by most Malawians. Unofficial poll results strongly indicate that most commentators, analysts and journalists got their predictions wrong. This underlines the importance of polls rather than predicting electoral outcomes based on past experiences, perceptions, personal prejudices and political party attendances. It is time Malawi, especially the media start commissioning polls. This is part and parcel of electoral process.

Malawi media this time wasted their precious time debating legitimacy of various polls, which flooded social media and filled precious editorial pages even though some journalists openly questioned legitimacy of these polls. ‘Bogus’ polls would have no space in the mainstream media if the media commissioned their own. By the time of writing, unofficial results looked more like vindicating Afrobarometer’s poll. Reality may yet be different by the time official elections results are announced, but their poll is the closest yet.

The unofficial results from the first day of vote counting shows that so far Malawi Congress Party’s (MCP) Lazarus Chakwera is getting what most Malawians thought he would get. At the same time these figures suggest that commentators underestimated people’s dislike of Joyce Banda’s People’s Party (PP). The number of senior PP officials that are losing their parliamentary seats is colossal. The unofficial results also suggest that commentators over-played United Democrat Front (UDF) and Atupele Muluzi’s popularity. Muluzi and his party are fairing badly. This means that most of the votes predicted for Joyce Banda and Muluzi have gone to Peter Mutharika and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) who have performed beyond most people’s expectations.

So far almost all the analysis has focused on presidential elections and much less on parliamentary elections, almost zero on local government elections. Yet, parliamentary elections are equally important and interesting, too – and not only when big-names have fallen. From the unofficial results, which are very patchy insofar as parliamentary elections are concerned, it is difficult to see any political party having absolute majority in parliament. Parliament should be a very interesting place, especially if section 65, which stops MPs joining other parties work this time around.

At the time of writing (with majority of the votes still to be counted) the unofficial polls suggested that the presidential contest had narrowed to Chakwera and Mutharika (names not in any order). This indicates that Malawi is likely to have a strong opposition. Strong opposition can only be a good thing for Malawi, if politicians in parliament don’t decide to shake hands and have ‘gentlemen agreement’ on what to be done. Opposition parties have always been the weakest link for sometime in Malawi politics.

Baring few hiccups in the electoral process, which have taken voting into a third day (few centres in Lilongwe and Blantyre had not voted at the time of writing), Malawi Electoral Commission has been quick to acknowledge its shortfalls and so far it looks like these hiccups have no bearing on electoral outcome – barring the fact that delayed announcement of results may test stretch people’s patience, both ordinary folks and politicians.

Winners will have a huge task and very little time to celebrate. Everything in this country needs fixing. Those that will form the next government must be aware that Malawians have little patience these days and they have become ever more demanding. If these elections were held only 24 months ago, Joyce Banda would have probably won with a landslide. That is how fast political fortunes and people’s goodwill can change in this country. This is a clear warning for the incoming president, but then the remedy is simple: govern according to people’s will and everything will take care of itself.

20^th May has been and Malawians have voted, amid reports of some irregularities and insufficient voting materials, which has caused panic, commotion and tension in at least 21 polling stations, mostly in the commercial of Blantyre. These are worrying developments especially considering that the electoral body had ample time to prepare for the occasion.

It is even more worrying when you consider that these polls have been projected to be the most tightly contested elections in Malawi. This means that the winner is most likely to win with a small margin. It is easy for losers to reject electoral results when the winning margin is narrow than when there is a landslide. These elections needed to be handled with extra caution.

What Malawians should avoid is to take matters into their own hands, even when their grievances are genuine and their anger understandable. On the other hand, people are likely to take matters into their own hands if they have no confidence in authorities handling the situation. This means the Malawi Electoral Commission and other electoral stakeholders have an enormous challenge to return whatever confidence people have in the electoral process.

From the onset, these elections have been full of hypothesises, as it is the first time Malawi has had tripartite elections, it is the first time Malawi has had female candidates running for presidency and the ‘post-Kamuzu’ generation has voted for the first time. All these factors will form a part of post-elections analysis, which should help reflect the kind of country Malawi has become in the last 20 years of democracy.

One thing that the campaign period has clearly reflected is that Malawians have become very demanding; they want better services from their leaders. This was exemplified by emphasis of having “issue-based” political campaign, where policy issues guide political decisions, as opposed to tribalism, religion and distribution of cash and material resources.

A week away from the elections, an Afrobarometer poll (its merits and demerits notwithstanding), projected that 15% of the registered voters were still undecided on whom to vote for. It is a projection of course and it is a shame because it is difficult to know for certain even after the elections but those that have been paying close attention would not be surprised that this time Malawi has had more undecided voters than-ever. Part of the explanation is that ordinary Malawians are becoming democratically mature but those in leadership are not. This gulf is unhealthy and if kept unchecked could hinder the healthy development of Malawi’s young democracy.

Malawians are looking for visionary leaders who will put their country on a development path. I have met few people who opted not to vote, and the common reasoning is that it is difficult to go and vote when you clearly know that your vote will not really change the way things work in the country. The anger that some Malawians have shown at various polling stations has much more to do with their frustrations with the entire political system than it has with irregularities and insufficient voting materials at polling stations.

Human rights activist and former political prisoner, Mrs Vera Chirwa said in her autobiography, Fearless Fighter:

“Our political elite has a responsibility, which they not only neglect but also exploit at expense of our people… it took us [Malawi] 30 years to achieve a Malawian democracy. I hope it will not take another 30 years to make Malawian democrats.”

Malawi as a country should heed this call. Our political leaders have the most important role to play in making Malawi an effective democracy. Political leadership must meet expectations of people or be prepared to lead an angry nation, something no one wants to see.